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. Last Updated: 07/27/2016

IEA Sees Oil Output Plateau

LONDON — Russian oil production may level out from 2010 to 2012 and stall until the middle of the decade, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

The IEA, adviser to 26 industrialized consumer nations, said it had based its forecast on a study of the top 20 development projects through to 2012 and an assumed 3 percent annual net decline rate for baseload production.

Using this calculation, output would reach around 10.6 million barrels per day by 2010, from 9.9 million bpd in the first quarter of this year. Output would then dip to 10.5 million bpd by 2012.

"An uncertain Russian investment climate and tight drilling and service capacity justify caution on new project start-ups," the IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report.

The agency expects a significant increase this year and next to come from the ExxonMobil-led Sakhalin-1 project. The $17 billion venture is building toward peak production of 250,000 bpd, with Asia as its main market. From late 2008, the IEA expects year-round production from Sakhalin-2.

It also listed Rosneft's Vankor project, plus initial volumes from LUKoil in Timan-Pechora and the North Caspian.

From 2009 to 2011, it forecast more volumes would begin to emerge from Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, TNK-BP and Russneft in eastern Siberia.

The IEA said that without publicly available, field-specific data, it was not possible to perform an in-depth, field-by-field analysis for the country. The IEA avoided making any forecasts beyond the middle of the next decade, adding, "Extrapolating a decline in Russian production in the longer term would be premature before examining post-2012 prospects in detail."