Articles by James Beadle



Russia Will Weather This Financial Hurricane

Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding Russia's economic prospects, the country will probably weather the financial hurricane relatively well, writes columnist James Beadle.

Russian Stocks Are Hurting, But Hope Remains

Russian assets are falling. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has dropped 10 percent against the dollar, and the MICEX has dropped 11 percent. Part of this trend reflects an issue with global capital flow.

Mastering the Emerging Market Financial Vortex

January has been a trying month for investors across the world, but it is the emerging markets that have captured the most attention, with some dramatic currency moves and headlines evoking fears of a repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which triggered Russia's 1998 default.

Khodorkovsky Release Is Nice, But Not Enough

Although his release was positive news, it does not reverse the destructive path that it symbolized.

A Tough Road Ahead for Emerging Markets

Emerging markets have experienced a difficult year. While the U.S. equity market is up by more than 20 percent, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is in negative territory.

Hope Is Not an Investment Strategy

What is curious about Russians' short-term investment strategy is how well it maps the behavior of risky asset classes.

Political Gateway Opens

Declining investment levels suggest that political risks have begun to hamper fundamentals, but September's mayoral election and a shift on Syria raise new hopes.

The Maturing of a Market

The Russian government is good at talking the talk about modernizing its capitalist state, but it needs to start walking the walk.

BP Is Moving Forward, Not Stepping Down

The timing of the latest bout of tension in the TNK-BP partnership is surely no accident. It comes immediately after the switch of Russia's ruling tandem and the announcement of seismic shifts in ministerial and state company control.

Reforms Back to Square One

Seven years after it began, the Yukos affair remains one of the most contentious and divisive aspects of the Russian investment climate. Pro- and anti-Kremlin agents are armed with clear and often valid arguments and have sufficient funding to get them publicly aired. Unsurprisingly, international investors remain confused about the case and its implications.

A Window for Double-Digit Gains

As the global economy continues its fragile recovery, Russia's domestic outlook is stable for 2010, with investors banking on the government following through with reform plans.

The Cruel Mistress Returns

The Russian equity market has soared a remarkable 100 percent since January. What is the outlook for the market for the remainder of the year?

The Risks of a Devalued Ruble

As oil prices have dropped below key fiscal support levels over the last few months, the outlook for the ruble has become a national concern. After proudly portraying the ruble's strength as a sign of economic resurgence, the government has sent confused messages about its decline, ranging from ardent declarations that there would be no devaluation to more earnest admissions that devaluation appears inevitable.

How to Revive Investor Confidence

Russia's benchmark RTS Index has dropped nearly 50 percent since peaking on May 19 and nearly 30 percent since the outbreak of war with Georgia over South Ossetia.

Russia's Engine Is Stalling

Investors across Russia could be excused for missing the controversial economic data that came out on Monday. Unlike its Western counterparts, the State Statistics Service prefers not to preannounce release times.

Greatest Investor Risk

Investor sentiment was rather mixed as we entered 2008. Bullish hopes lingered in developed markets, based on the naive assumption that 2007 credit woes would magically evaporate on New Year's Day, and emerging markets danced to the dream of decoupling.

Russia's Safe Haven

The benchmark RTS index has dropped 16 percent since peaking at 2339.79 on Jan. 14.

Trailing After the First Half

The Russian equity market ended 2006 in a bullish mood, the benchmark index had increased by 71 percent over the year and the outlook was rosy, with global economic strength pointing to sustained commodities prices for 2007.

Better Lower Prices Than Higher Expectations

For the third year in a row, the Russian market is expected to set a record for the volume of shares issued, through both initial and secondary public offerings.